基于动态利润模型的人民币升值对中国造船业影响的分析

Analysis of the Impact of RMB Appreciation on Chinese Shipbuilding Industry Based on Dynamic Profit Model

人民币对美元的持续升值给中国造船业带来了很大的负面影响。影响造船业利润的主要因素有人民币升值幅度、国外原材料及配套设备采购在总成本中所占的比例、升值前船东的付款比例、国内外原材料及配套设备的采购成本变动幅度等。综合考虑上述各种因素,建立了动态的利润模型,分析人民币升值对造船业的影响途径和影响程度,还进行了各个因素的敏感性分析,提出相应的对策建议。

Continued appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has negative impact on Chinese shipbuilding industry. The main factors influencing the shipbuilding industry profits are appreciation of the RMB rate, the proportion of the costs of imported raw materials and related equipment in total costs＇ the percentage of ship owner＇s payment before RMB appreciation to his account payable, variation between the costs of domestic raw materials and ancillary equipment and the costs of imported ones. A dynamic profit model is constructed in comprehensive consideration of these factors. Then the impact of RMB appreciation on Chinese shipbuilding industry is analysed. At last the sensitivity of various factors is investigated and related countermeasures are proposed.