强制性技术变迁、二元分化与中国通货膨胀模型

Compelled Technical Change,the Division into Two Parts,and the Model of China's Inflation

本文建立一个强制性技术变迁假说下的结构性通货膨胀模型,从理论上分析了中国价格水平"二元分化"、周期性通胀等宏观现象的决定过程,并以2001年1月到2008年5月宏观月度数据为基础对本文结论进行了实证检验。分析表明,技术引进、国家强控制力、产能缺口加速通货膨胀,而产品出口利于减缓通货膨胀波动。这些结论对于今后中国宏观经济政策制定具有重要意义。

In the framework of the hypothesis of compelled technical change, we have constructed a model of structural inflation, analyzing theoretically the process of the determination of such macro-phenomena as the 'bifurcation' of prices levels in China, the cyclical inflation therein; and, founded on the monthly macro-data of January, 2001 to May 2008, we have, by evidence, tested the conclusion made in this article. The analysis indicates that the import of technology, the tight state control, and the gap of production capacity will accelerate inflation, and that, the export of technology is, however, conducive to slowing down inflation fluctuations. These conclusions are of great significance to the decision-making of China’s macroeconomic policies.