碳交易计价结算货币：理论、现实与选择

The Invoice Currency of Carbon Trading:Theory,Reality and Choices

一国货币与国际大宗商品、特别是能源贸易的计价结算绑定权往往是货币崛起的起点。本文在考察"煤炭-英镑"、"石油-美元"霸权演变的基础上,对新能源组合和新能源利用模式的核心——碳信用交易的计价和结算货币绑定权——以及由此衍生的货币职能加以探讨。从碳交易市场迅速发展的现状出发,本文指出,基于碳交易的商品属性,有形商品贸易计价和结算货币选择的经典理论和一般规律同样适用于碳交易计价和结算货币选择,碳交易市场份额、金融市场的完善程度和碳信用额差异性等是重要影响因素。本文系统论证了碳交易市场计价和结算货币的现状。本文认为,碳交易的兴起将是助推货币多元化格局的绝好契机,与"货币稳定三岛"的演进方向趋同,也顺应了重塑全球货币体系的改革诉求。

The long journey of becoming into an international currency often starts modestly. Customarily the currency has to first establish itself as an invoice currency, especially that in the energy trade. Based on a review of the transition from ＂coal--pound＂ to ＂oil--dollar＂, this paper offers an assessment of the various choices of invoice currency in carbon trading. In this case, since the main factors determining the invoicing choice are. market share, financial market development and differentiation of carbon credits, the classical theory of tangible trade applies. Even if a carbon unit is a special right which, depending on the regulatory market under which it is created, already exhibits characteristics of both a commodity and a currency, it is not unforeseeable that given the current development, one （or perhaps more） in- voice currency might eventually emerge as the choice currency in the carbon market. The classical theory of tangible trade postulates that the higher the market share of carbon trading, the more advanced the financial market development, and the higher quality its carbon credits, the more likely a country will price carbon in the its currency. This paper also discusses some cases -- which involve looking into the role of Euros, Japanese Yen, as well as other currencies, in the formation of the ＂Three Islands of Stability＂ --consistent to this argument.