论中国可接受的产出缺口区间与宏观经济走势

On the Acceptable Output Gap and the Tendency of Marco-Economy in China

2008年中国经济增长步伐明显放缓,中国经济已步入收缩期。在全球金融动荡的背景下,分析中国当前的宏观经济形势与近期走势、及时调整经济政策具有重要的现实意义。文章构建状态空间模型进行Kalman滤波,估算我国1978—2008年的潜在产出与产出缺口,分析我国经济长期增长趋势、可接受的产出缺口区间与可接受的经济增长区间,据此对2009年经济走势进行预测并提出相应的政策建议。

In 2008, the economic growth of China is slow down, which means the economy has entered the regression period in China. Under the global financial crisis, to analyze the tendency of macro economy and recent situation and adjusting policies for economy is of significance. This paper establishes a model of Kalman filter to estimate the potential output and the gap in China from 1978-2008, then analyze the tendency of economy, acceptable output gap and acceptable growth, based on above, proposes relevant suggestions for the tendency of development in 2009.