摘要
采用生态足迹分析方法,对我国2002年到2007年的轿车生态足迹进行核算,构建了轿车保有量以低、中和高3种速度增长的情景,并分别对每一种情景与对应的基准情景进行对比分析。分析结果表明,随着柴油轿车比例的不断上升,轿车生态足迹与基准情景相比有所降低,但是由于轿车保有量的持续高速增长,到2030年,我国轿车生态足迹将达到2010年的6倍以上。最后就我国轿车产业将要面临的严峻的能源和环境压力提出了几条对策。
By using ecological footprint analysis method, the car ecological footprint from 2002 to 2007 in China is evaluated, and the growth scenarios of car population in China at low, medium and high three speeds are constructed, with each scenario compared to corresponding benchmark scenario respectively. The results show that with the constant rise of diesel car proportion, the car ecological footprint is reduced compared to benchmark scenar- io. However, due to the sustained high growth of car population, the car ecological footprint in 2030 will be 6 times of that in 2010 in China. In the end, some countermeasures for the severe energy and environment pressures the car industry in China will face are put forward.
出处
《汽车工程》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期287-292,共6页
Automotive Engineering
关键词
中国
轿车
生态足迹
情景分析
China
car
ecological footprint
scenario analysis
