基于灰色模型的柴油机技术状态变化趋势预测

Prediction of Technical State Change Trend of Diesel Engine Based on Grey Model

以某型坦克用柴油机为平台进行了大量实车实验，确定了能够表征柴油机技术状态变化的6个特征量，利用主成分分析法确定了柴油机寿命预测特征量；建立了灰色预测模型，并基于所测数据进行了技术状态变化趋势预测。研究结果表明：预测值接近于实际值，能够为柴油机的使用和合理维修提供依据。

Based on a great lot of experiments on actual vehicles with tank diesel engines, this paper confirms six characters that attribute the changes of diesel engine technical state, and the character for diesel engine life prediction is also decided by using principal component analysis. Grey prediction models are built and predictions of technical state change trend are made on the base of data measured on tanks. The results indicate that the prediction value is close to the actual one, and it can offer a reference for using and maintaining the diesel engines.