指标交叉预测法预测烟蚜发生趋势

Application of target-cross forecast way in the occurrence trend of Myzus persicae (Sulzer)

为及时掌握湖南省烟蚜的发生动态，应用指标交叉法进行烟蚜发生程度趋势预测的研究，利用全省8个测报站3～10年的历史资料，以2007年实际发生情况作回测，预测结果准确率达80％左右．

Myzus persicae （Sulzer） is one of the major pests of tabacoo in Hunan province. In order to know its occurrence trends in time, occurrence trend of Myzus persicae （Sulzer） was researched with the target-cross way with 3-10 years＇ data at 8 prediction stations, and back forecast was also carried out with the data in 2007.Results showed that the accurate percent of forecasting for Myzus persicae （Sulzer） was about 80%, which provided the scientific data and method for the previous forecast ofMyzus persicae （Sulzer） in the field.