基于马尔可夫模型预测长汀县土地利用动态变化

Prognoses of Dynamic Variation of Land Utilization in Changting County By the Markov Model

以福建省长汀县为研究对象，利用1995年、2005年的遥感图像，运用RS和GIS技术分析了用动态变化过程以及土地利用各类型之间的相互转化情况。在此基础上，求得研究区土地利用的转移矩阵，据此分析了长汀县1995年-2005年间土地利用动态变化的空间过程。同时运用马尔可夫模型对2015和2025年的土地利用动态变化及演变趋势预测进行了分析，得出长汀县内土地利用变化情况。

By using the 1995＇s and 2005＇s remote sensed images and the remote sensing and GIS technique, it gives a detailed statement of the dynamic variation of land utilization in Changting County. Based on the transfer matrix of land utilization calculated in the surveyed area, the author made an assay of the steric course of dynamic variation of land utilization in Changting County during the years of 1995 to 2005, and made an analysis of the d variation and the evolution tendency of land utilization during the years of 2015 and 2 using the Markov model, which can educe the diversification of land utilization Changting County. ynamlc O50 by