电潜泵工作寿命的灰色马尔柯夫模型预测

FORECASTING ON THE WORK LIFESPAN OF ELECTRIC SUBMERSIBLE PUMP BY GRAYMARKOV MODEL

灰色预测模型和马尔柯夫预测模型是两类应用比较广泛的预测方法，由于处理数据序列的方式不同，它们具有不同的特点。本文根据灰色系统理论，将ＧＭ（１，１）灰色预测模型和马尔柯夫预测模型的优点结合起来，形成一个灰色马尔柯夫预测模型。该模型不仅拓宽了灰色预测的应用范围，而且预测结果比其它随机波动性较大的数据列模型的预测结果精确得多。利用该模型对电潜泵工作寿命进行预测，取得了令人满意的效果；结果证明，该方法简单，精度高，实用性强。

Gray GM(1,1)forecasting model and Markov model are two kinds of forecasting methods which are widely used.However,they have different features because of their different ways of processing data.This paper is based on the gray ststem theory and gives a grayMarkov forecasting model,which has combined the advantages both of gray GM(1,1) forecasting model and markov one.It widens the application range of gray forecast,particularly,the obtained results are more precise than those by other models for data sequences with heavy random fluctuation.The result of forecasting the work lifespan of electric submersible pump is of satisfaction.The results show that the method has high precision and powerful practicality.