考虑径流年内分布影响的丰枯划分方法及其应用

Research and Application of a Method Considering Runoff Distribution Through A Year During Partitioning Runoff into Abundant and Low State

在分析现有的考虑年内分布影响的径流丰枯划分方法不足之处的基础上,提出一种求取年内各月权重值的新方法——因子分析定权法,并将其应用于西江干流梧州水文站1946—2000年的年平均流量的丰枯划分;然后,应用Markov过程分析法,对该站年平均流量丰枯状态演化的概率特性进行了研究。结果表明:梧州站枯水、平水和丰水状态的自保守性依次减弱;无论径流处于何种初始状态,其向枯水、平水和丰水状态转移的概率依次减小;在其径流长期演化过程中,枯水、平水和丰水状态的出现频率依次降低。

Based on analyzing the shortages of current methods considering runoff distribution through a year when partitioning runoff into abundant and low state, a new method, weighting method based on factor analysis, for obtaining weight values of each month in a yearI was presented. This method was applied to partition yearly average flow of Wuzhou hydrological station on the main branch of Xijiang River into abundant and low state, and then Markov process method was applied to study the probability characteristic of state series. The results showed that self-conservative characteristics weakened orderly as low, normal and abundant state; no matter what initial state runoff was, the transition probabilities decreased orderly as low, normal and abundant state; during long evolvement of runoff, emergence probabilities reduced orderly as low, normal and abundant state.