银行能够有效识别企业的会计操纵行为吗——以中国上市公司的银行借款违约概率为视角

Do Banks Effectively Discern Companies' Accounting Frauds?——A Perspective of Bank Debt Default of Chinese Listed Companies

以1998年—2007年的中国上市公司为样本,对中国银行业能否有效识别企业的会计操纵行为进行研究。选择经营现金流量处于微正区间(0^+0.02)的企业,考察银行对这些明显有会计操纵嫌疑企业的信贷风险控制效果。通过对不同经营现金流量区间企业的债务违约概率进行单变量比较和多元回归分析,发现微正区间公司与负区间(-∞~0)公司的违约概率没有显著差别,但显著高于超微正区间(+0.02^+∞)公司。由此推断,中国银行业还不能有效识别企业的会计操纵行为。

By taking the accounting behavior of some China listed companies from the year 1998 to 2007 as a sample, this paper aims to find if the China banking sector can effeetively discern companies＇ accounting frauds. We select those companies whose cash flows from the operation just exceed zero（0 - ＋0.02） and observe the effect that banks control the credit risk of such suspected eompanies. By variables comparison and multivariate analysis of debt default probability of different cash flow intervals, we find that the default probabil- ity of cash flow from operation just exeeeding zero（0 - ＋ 0.02） does not have a significant differenee from that of cash below zero （-∞- 0）, but have a significant difference from that of exceeding ＋ 0.02 （ ＋ 0.02 -＋ ∞ ）. As a result, we come to the conclusion that Chinese banks can not effectively discern companies＇ accounting frauds at present.