所有制结构变迁与中国城镇劳动收入差距演变--基于“估计-校准”的方法

Ownership Reform and Urban China's Earning Inequality

本文通过构建一个包括个体职业选择的理论模型,刻画了所有制结构变迁过程中中国城镇劳动收入差距扩大的内在机制。模型揭示,在劳动力市场转型过程中,工资决定机制的不同将导致高人力资本者从公有部门"跳槽"到私有部门;人才的流失反过来又促使公有部门对自身进行改革,迫使低人力资本者"下岗"流向私有部门。基于1995、1999和2002年的微观数据和最新发展起来的"估计-校准"方法,本文对模型参数进行了估计和校准。计量估计结果表明,私有部门的教育回报率高于公有部门,这构成了劳动力从公有部门向私有部门转移的基本动力。数值模拟结果表明,1995-2002年间中国城镇劳动收入差距演变的90%应该归结于所有制结构变迁。公有部门工资决定机制改革导致公有部门内部劳动收入差距扩大,却降低了整体劳动收入差距。

A general equilibrium model with rational occupation choice is constructed to explore the relationship between the ownership reform and urban China＇s earning inequality. The model demonstrates that, due to earning differentials between the competitive and non-competitive sectors, agents with higher human capital are motivated to shift to competitive sector on the transitional path of labor market. This will in turn lead to re-organization in the non-competitive sector, and thereby force the agents with lower human capital leave the non-competitive sector involuntarily. Based on the newly developed tool of ＂Estimation-Calibration＂, this paper uses the household survey data of 1995, 1999 and 2002 to estimate and calibrate the parameters in the model. Econometric results show that the return of human capital in the private sector is higher than that in the public sector, which is worked as the primary engine of labor mobility. Micro-simulation is adopted to test the empirical plausibility of the model： we simulate the earning distribution in 1999 and 2002 using the demographics of the agents in 1995. The results reveal that ownership reform accounts for 90 percent of the earning distribution shift between 1995 and 2002 in urban China, and total inequality decreases because of the public sector re-organization, although it increases inequality in the public sector. The results are robust to different measurements of inequality, different types of employment shift and different specifications of cost function form.