概率型活动网络的计算机模拟

Computer Simulation of the Activity Network of Probability Type

尝试将网络计划技术与风险分析结合起来，突破了传统的ＰＥＲＴ网络计划只考虑单一关键线路的限制以及每项活动持续时间均服从β分布的假定．在ＰＥＲＴ中真正引入随机因素，利用计算机模拟技术，对实际复杂系统进行大量的动态模拟，从而获得描述系统特征的数值，为决策提供科学的依据．

Combining network planning technique with risk analysis, the author succeds in introducing really the random factors into program evaluation and review technique (PERT). Thus a breakthrough is made on the limitation of conventional PERT network planning which considers only single critical path and assumes that the duration of every activity conforms to beta distribution. Besides, a large number of dynamic simulation for complex real system can be carried out by using computer simulation technique. Thus the data describing system characteristic will be obtained and scientific basis for decision making will be offered.