医疗保险的财务风险评估

Estimation of Financial Risk of Health Insurance

建立了风险评估的基本模型和马尔柯夫模型，用以估计病人健康状态和治疗水平的随机性给医疗保险带来的财务风险，并举例说明了三水平马尔柯夫模型的实际应用．应用过程表明，风险评估模型能够合理地估算出相关财务风险的大小，为制订正确的医疗保险策略提供必要依据．

The basic model and Markov model are set up to estimate the financial risk which is brought by the stochastic property of patients' health state and treatment level for health care plan. An example is given to demonstrate the application of three level Markov model. This course enun ciates that the risk estimation model can estimate correlative financial risk reasonably. And it can also provide foundation for formulating the health care plan accurately.