我国粮食价格对零售物价总水平影响的 ARIMA 模型分析

Using ARIMA Model to Analyze the Influence of Food Prices to the Whole National Economy and General Index of Retail Prices

利用ＡＲＩＭＡ模型（鲍克斯－詹金斯模型）定量测算了粮食价格对整个国民经济以及零售物价总水平的影响．通过对粮食价格变动的影响机制的分析和对影响零售物价总水平的测算方法的研究，说明我国目前农业面临的困难．研究表明，粮食价格对零售物价总水平影响重大．研究结果对我国农业经济发展有着重大的现实指导意义．

This article uses ARIMA model to make a quantitative analysis on the influence of the food prices to the whole national economy and general index of retail prices. The research shows that the food prices influence the general index of retail prices to a certain extent, but the stimulating function of the increase of the food prices to the increase of agricultural product supply, especially the promotional function of the supply of agricultural product to the increase of the national income, is more greater than its influence to the general index of retail prices.