国际格局变化与奥巴马新政下的美国中东政策

Transformation of International Patterns and U.S.Middle East Policy in the New Obama Administration

后冷战时代核均势下的大国竞争集中在经济较量上,美国误判了新兴大国崛起的本质,未意识到这种挑战是经济上的而非军事上的。美国在全球过度军事干预,与国内经济衰落和金融危机一道,促使美国主导下的单极体系急剧走向式微。由于力量衰退,美国被迫实施战略收缩,以大国协作方式维持霸权不坠。中东政策调整是美国全球战略收缩的一个缩影。奥巴马执政后,美国中东政策的可能调整包括:重塑中东均势以减轻战略重负;默认伊朗的中东大国地位,通过接触政策缓和美伊矛盾;接受欧盟、俄罗斯、中国在中东的建设性作用。但美国不会放弃单极霸权宿求,战略收缩只是其权宜之计,因此难以逃脱在全球与中东影响力下降的命运。

In the post-Cold War era, the United States lacks real military advantages to break the global equilibrium; therefore, great power struggle shifts to the economic front. Over-militarization and economic decline quicken the collapse of American hegemonic system. In face of waning power, the country is forced to conduct concentration and support its global role with concert of the major powers. American Middle East policy adjustment, an epitome of global adjustments, may contain： to encourage balance of power to lighten its burden; to recognize Iran as the regional power; to include China in the regional arrangements. American global adjustments will inevitably end up in failure for sake of its disastrous unipolar ambition.