基于PSR的生态安全演变对气候变暖的响应

Responds to climate warming for the evolution of ecological security based on the Pressure –Status–Response model

近50多年来南宁市气候变化总趋势在逐渐变暖,80年代中期开始变暖明显,增幅加大。对气候变暖明显的近20a,根据压力-状态-响应概念模型,构建了一个城市生态安全评价指标体系和综合评价模型,对南宁市生态安全的现状和发展趋势做出了评价。分析结果表明,虽然南宁市的总体生态安全状况得到一定程度的改善,但是随着气候变暖引起的旱涝灾害日趋分布不均,资源环境压力不断恶化,而人文响应指标趋于稳定平缓的阶段,如果不引起足够的重视,这势必给城市的社会经济发展及生态环境改善带来不利影响。

The general trend of climate change has been in a gradual warming, while a significant increase since the mid of 1980s. Regarding recent 20 years of the noticeable warming, this paper creates an index system and a comprehensive model to evaluate the present situation and the developing trend of the ecological security of Nanning based on the Pressure-Status-Response conceptual model. The result indicates that, although the overall ecological security situations have been improved to some extent, the drought and flood disasters tend to distribute unevenly along with the climate warming, and the resources and environment continue to worsen, but the humanities response indicator is in a stable and gentle stage. This will bring adverse effects inevitable to the city＇s socio-economic development and the ecological environment improvement without enough attention.