东部地区经济平稳增长路径下的最优财政收支规模分析

An Analysis of the Opitmal Scale of Fiscal Income and Expenditute On the Stable Path of Economic Growth in East Area of China

文章在经济增长理论的基础上,根据东部地区最终消费、固定资产投资、进出口总额和财政收支数据,运用计量经济学和最优化理论对东部地区经济平稳增长路径下的财政收支进行了经验研究。通过MATLAB计算可知,要实现东部地区经济的平稳增长,最终消费支出、固定资产投资和进出口总额分别为103930亿元、108800亿元和272360亿元,最优财政收入和财政支出规模为22247亿元和29030亿元。

This thesis analyzes the data of final consumption expenditures, investment in fixed assets and total value of imports and exports detailedly during the course of 1997 - 2006 in east area of China. The econometric and linear programming theorem are introduced to investigate the fiscal income and expenditure on the stable path of east area＇s economic growth. The article suggests that final consumption expenditures, investment in fixed assets and total value of imports and exports should be 10393 billion yuan, 10880 billion yuan and 27236 billion yuan in order to achieve the stable growth of economy in east area. Simultaneously, we can figure out the optimal fiscal income and expenditure which are 2224.7 billion yuan and 2903 billion yuan respectively through the calculation of Matrix Laboratory.