应用数学模型对矮啤大麦S500高产栽培及经济效应的研究

Mathematical Models and Optimizing Methods of Synthetical Cultivation for Cultivar S500 of Barley

采用五因素五水平正交旋转回归组合设计,研究华中地区种植密度、有机肥、氮、磷、钾等因素与矮啤大麦S500产量、千粒重和经济效益的综合效应.对模型解析发现,在供试条件下密度、有机肥、氮、磷、钾单因子对大麦产量的绝对贡献顺序为氮肥>有机肥>磷肥>钾肥>密度,对千粒重的绝对贡献顺序为磷肥>有机肥>钾肥>密度>氮肥,对净收入的绝对贡献顺序为氮肥>有机肥>磷肥>钾肥>密度.计算机模拟寻优表明,密度在219.3-233.13万株/hm^2,有机肥在22050-24975kg/hm^2,氮肥在186.49-208.92kg/km^2,磷肥在91.14-104.68kg/hm^2,钾肥在63.41-82.58kg/hm^2时,大麦千粒重在42g以上,大麦的产量在5000kg/hm^2,净收入在5000元/hm^2以上,足以实现大麦优质高产且经济效益大的目的.

Second-order regression models for barley S500, a new cultivar with high yield, seed weight and desirable income, were constructed with the dataset arising through one sequential experiment on the principle of orthogonal, rotatable and central composite design. Three models for yield, seed weight and income were obtained respectively with the same five operating variables, that is, density, organic fertilizer, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Yield absolute contribution is sequenced as nitrogen〉organic fertilizer〉 phosphorus〉potassium〉density, in terms of seed weight and income, their absolute contribution is phosphorus〉organic fertilizer〉potassium〉density 〉 nitrogen and nitrogen〉 organic fertilizer〉phosphorus〉potassium 〉 density, respectively. A set of operating conditions （that is, 219.3-233.13 individual plants/ha density, 22050-24975 kg/ha organic fertilizer, 186.49-208.92 kg/ha nitrogen fertilizer, 91.14-104.68 kg/ha phosphorus fertil- izer, 63.41-82.58 kg/ha potassium fertilizer） should be met to keep barley quality in desired ranges（above 5000kg/ha yield, 42g/10^3 seeds and 5000 yuan/ha）.