劳动力流动对城市劳动力市场的影响

The Impact of Labor Migration on Urban Labor Markets in China

本文使用2005年1％人口抽样调查数据，考察了在我国大中城市中，劳动力流动对本地劳动者就业率和工资的影响。我们发现，外来劳动力对城市本地劳动力的就业率和工资均具有统计上显著的负向作用，但是影响的规模非常小。对于全部教育组平均而言，外来劳动力每增加10％，城市本地劳动力的就业率下降0.3％，工资下降0.65％；对于中低教育水平（高中及以下）的城市本地劳动力而言，外来劳动力的影响程度相对高一些，但是仍然不算大。另外，我们发现，外来劳动力对本地职工工资的影响，要大于对就业率的影响，说明城市本地劳动力对于外来劳动力存在有限的反应，主要体现在降低保留工资，而非放弃工作机会。

Based on the 1% population survey data of 2005, we estimate the impact of labor migration on China＇s urban labor markets, focusing on employment and wages. We find that the inflow of migrants has statistically significant and negative impacts on both employment and wages of local workers, but the magnitudes are small. A 10% increase in migrant labor supply reduces the employment of local workers by 0.3% and wages by 0.65% the impact on medium and low education （high school and below） group is somewhat larger but still quite modest. Another finding is that the impact on employment is much smaller than that on wages, implying that the limited reaction from urban local workers in the face of large scale inflow of migrant workers has been to reduce reservation wages rather than giving up employment.