基于系统动力学的企业资金管理决策仿真研究

Decision Simulation Research Based on System Dynamics for the Enterprise Fund Management

系统动力学是以反馈控制理论为基础,以计算机仿真技术为主要手段,定性与定量相结合地分析研究大型非线性复杂系统动态行为的一门应用学科。企业的资金管理中存在多目标,而影响多目标的因素间又存在相互依存、相互制约、此消彼长的复杂关系及因时而异构成的动态行为,给管理决策带来很大的不确定性。本文探求运用系统动力学建立企业的资金发展计划管理模型,解决多目标管理中动态性、时变性和多重反馈的问题,并利用模型对某企业资金发展计划备选方案进行比选决策,可供研究同类问题参考。

System dynamics is an applied subject which bases on feedback control theory. It uses computer simulation technology as main means to study and analyze non-linear complicated system dynamic behaviors qualitatively and quantitatively. There are many objectives and many influence factors in the fund management process. The relationship among these factors are complicated and dynamic. Therefore, it brings more uncer- tainty than before in the management decision. Based on system dynamics, the paper establishes the fund de- velopment plan model for solving the dynamic, non-stationary and multiple feedback problems in the multi-ob- jectives management and decisions making by scheme comparison. The model is applicable in the construction enterprises and could be used as a reference in the study of the resemble cases.