中国外债安全的预警机制——基于症状检测思想的实证分析

Early-warning Mechanism of China's Foreign Loans Safety:Empirical Analysis Based on Symptom-testing Approach

本文沿着症状检测的思路,构建了外债安全状态指数并对中国外债安全状态的变化进行了机制分析。通过分析可以得到:(1)近年来我国的外债安全状态并不稳定,外债不安全的概率出现了一定的波动和升高;(2)在国际金融危机的背景之下,应该从更全面的角度对国家外债安全情况进行判断,以避免外债危机的发生。

This paper constructs foreign loans safety index and makes an systematic analysis ofthe variation of the safety of China＇ s foreign loans. The analysis discovers that our foreign loanswere in a volatile state in recent years, the probability of the unsafety of foreign loans fluctuatedrose. Under the circumstance of international financial crisis, we should analyze our national foreignloans from a more comprehensive perspective so as to avoid foreign loans crisis.