层次分析法(AHP法)在工程项目风险管理中的应用

Application of AHP Analysis in Risk Management of Engineering Projects

风险分析与评价是工程项目风险管理过程中的关键环节,其分析与评价的结果直接影响到项目的风险决策。目前最常用的风险分析技术主要是层次分析法。层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process简称AHP)是对定性问题进行定量分析的一种简便、灵活而又实用的多准则决策方法,主要用于项目的投标报价阶段。本文研究了AHP法的概念、原理和特点,通过案例,详细分析了AHP法在工程项目风险管理中的实施步骤、应用层次分析法进行风险管理的意义及应注意的问题。

Risk analysis and assessment is a key process in risk management of engineering project, the result of which directly determines the risk management strategy. Engineering risks are indefinite and of uncertainty. They are difficult to be defined and quantified, but this exactly creates the basis for current quantified analysis method. Currently, the prevailing risk analysis method is Analytic Hierarchy Process. Analytic Hierarchy Process （in brief called ＂AHP＂） is the process to analyze the qualified issues by quantified analysis process. It is a simple, flexible and pragmatic multi-rules decision making process. It＇ s mainly applicable to bidding stage. The conception, theory and characteristics of AHP are described in this article. Through case study, AHP process application process in risk management of engineering project is analyzed in details. Moreover, the significance and issues to be attended during the AHP application in risk management are also described herewith. The analytic process reflected in this article is very maneuverable with high practicable value.