自由现金流量预测模型研究——基于汽车制造业的面板数据分析

A Study on Free Cash Flow Forecasting Model——Panel Data Analysis Based on the Auto Manufacturing

本文构建了适用于企业价值估计的自由现金流量预测模型。模型根据自由现金流量的财务本质,通过将自由现金流量分解成各相应的应计项目,利用并设计相互之间的运算关系,运用计量经济学方法,对下一期的自由现金流量进行预测,并用汽车制造业上市公司的面板数据(1996年至2006年)对该预测模型进行了检验。结果表明模型本身以及解释变量都具有很高的显著性,证明了在销货成本、销售费用、管理费用与销售收入之比保持相对稳定等给定条件下,该模型具有很好的预测能力。

This article builds a free cash flow forecasting model which can be applied to enterprise valuation. According to the financial essence of free cash flow, the model decomposes free cash flow into several relative accounting items and then uses econometric method to forecast next period free cash flow based on the mathematic operation relationship between those accrual items. Further, we test the model based on panel data (1996-2006) of public companies in auto industry. The testing result shows that the equation we built and variables we selected all have high significance and proves that the model has good forecasting ability on several conditions including the sum of cost of goods, sales expense and management expense to revenue ratio keeps relative stable.