汶川Ms8.0级强震震前龙门山断裂带断层形变异常分析

Analysis on Fault Deformation Anomaly of Longmenshan Fault Zone before Ms8.0 Wenchuan Strong Earthquake

概述和分析四川汶川Ms8.0级强震的发震构造及其地质背景,从断层形变的角度研究这次地震前形变场的异常变化情况。结论是:汶川地震区的地形变前兆异常是客观存在的,在某些局部区域甚至是非常显著的;流动短水准观测资料反映出了震前龙门山断裂带局部区域的加速活动;从现有形变资料出发,要实现如此大地震的预报仍然缺乏根据和把握。

The article surveys and analyses the seismogenic structure and geological settings of Ms8.0 Wenchuan strong earthquake. The paper examined the changing course of deformation field from the angle of fault deformation before the earthquake. The conclusions are as follows： The crustal deformation precursor anomaly within the earthquake area of Wenchuan was in its objective existence, and it is quite salient in some partial area;Mobile short leveling observation data indicated the accelerative movement in Longmenshan fault zone before the earthquake; yet with respect to the current deformation data, it still lacks reasonable basis and certainty regarding the forecasting of such strong earthquake.