宁夏石嘴山市一次强降水过程分析

Analysis of a heavy rainfall weather process in the north of Ningxia Occurring

为在天气学分析的基础上更有效地利用数值预报产品,提高宁夏石嘴山市强降水的预报水平,利用常规气象资料和数值预报产品,对石嘴山市一次强降水天气(2008-07-13)的天气形势、卫星云图和物理量场进行了天气学成因分析,并就欧洲中心、T213、WRF和日本等数值预报产品对该次强降水的预报能力进行了对比分析.结果表明,强降水是在有利的天气尺度环流背景和物理量场条件下,2个中尺度系统的作用结果所致.各类数值预报产品对该次强降水天气的预报提供了一定的借鉴.

In order to use the numerical predictive product and normal meteorologic data effectively, improve heavy rainfall weather forecast, an analysis of synoptic cause of formation is made by synoptic situation and the satellite cloud image and physical quantity fields, a heavy rainfall which occurred in the north of Ningxia on July 13th 2008. The forecast capability is contrasted between numerical forecast about ECMWF, ＇I213, WRF and Japan. The analysis shows that this heavy rainfall weather process occurred as an action result of two meso-scale systems under favorable conditions of synoptic scale circumfluence and physical quantity fields. Each numerical forecast products all play important role in weather forecast of this heavy rainfall weather process.