实物期权在短生命周期产品供应链风险管理中的应用

Application of real option in supply chain risk management with short-life-cycle products

基于短生命周期产品供应链具有需求高度不确定性的特点,引入实物期权机制,研究如何利用实物期权对供应链风险进行管理。首先,求解分销商的最优订货政策、供销商的最优生产政策,给出最有期望利润的解析式;然后,说明期权如何对供应链双方进行协调,并通过数例分析得出期权的引入能够有效提高双方的效益,从而降低了供应链风险。

The Supply Chain based on short-life-cycle pruducts is characterized by high damand uncertainty. In this paper the real option mechanism is introduced, and then how to use the option to manage the supply chain risk is studied. First, optimal replenishment policies for the buyer,optmal production policies for the supplier,as well as close-form solutions for optimal expected profits are derived.Then,how the option coordinates the two parts in the suppy chain are shown, and according to the numerical analysis, the conclusion that the introduction of the option can effectively increase the profits of the two parts is reduced obtained, thus reducing the supply chain risk can be.