我国外汇储备适度规模的分析和测算

Analysis and Measurement of the Moderate Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserves in China

近年来,我国外汇储备增长迅速,引发了学术界对外汇储备规模是否适度的激烈争论。根据外汇储备需求理论,在对影响我国外汇储备的经济因素进行分析的基础上,运用协整理论对长期均衡外汇储备规模进行了测算。研究结果表明,2000年以前外汇储备相对不足,而2000年以后外汇储备超出适度规模,而且过剩差额有逐渐增大的趋势。对影响外汇储备规模的短期动态调整过程进行的实证研究结果显示,我国外汇储备在短期中主要受到上期实际规模与长期均衡水平差额、外商直接投资规模、国际收支变动率和汇率浮动程度等因素的影响。

According to the demand theory of foreign exchange reserves and on the basis of analyses of economic factors affecting the foreign exchange reserves in China, this study apples the cointegration theory to measure the scale of the long-term equilibriumand the foreign exchange reserves. It is suggested that the amount of the foreign exchange reserves in China was relatively insufficient before 2000 while it has been exceeding the moderate scale and the excess balance has a gradual increasing trend after 2000. According to empirical studies of short-term dynamic adjustment affecting the scale of foreign exchange reserves, China＇s foreign exchange reserves are for short terms influenced mainly by such factors as the difference between the actual scale of prior periods and the long-term equilibrium level, the scale of direct foreign investment, the fluctuation ratio of international payments and the degree of exchange rate, etc.