中国货币中性与非中性的实证检验

The Empirical Test of Currency-neutral in China

当前这场席卷全球的金融危机告诉我们:正确地认识货币供应量与实体经济之间的关系并确定相应的货币政策中介目标,是引导经济持续健康发展的重要前提。鉴于此,本文采用了中国1996—2008年的季度数据,通过建立向量误差修正模型,对中国货币是否为中性进行了实证检验。结果表明,中国货币不但在短期表现为非中性,在长期也是非中性的。

The current financial crisis sweeping through the world tell us that： understanding correctly the relationship between the money supply and the real economy, and to determine the appropriate monetary policy intermediate goal, which are important prerequisite to guide the economic develop health .In view of this, the paper, using the quarterly data of China 1996 - 2008 years, through established the vector error correction model , tested the neutral of China＇s currency by the way of empirically. The results show that China＇s money supply and the real economy is closely related. China＇s currency not only performance of non-neutral in the short-term, but also performance of non-neutral in the long term.