农户信贷有风险吗——基于CreditMetrics模型的分析

Do Farmer Credit have Risk——A Study Based on Rural Credit Cooperative in Institution

2008年十七届三中全会提出要建立现代农村金融体系,其中定量判断农户信贷风险成为必要的基础性研究。在分析样本机构信贷结构的基础上,将CreditMetrics模型引入农户信贷风险研究中,比较了农户、农村企业两类信贷风险状况。计量结果表明,农户信贷风险偏高,VaR值视角下农户信贷净现值甚至低于本金。这说明,国家在推进农户信贷进程中需要进一步推出优惠政策,以提供必要的激励。

the modem rural credit system is important part of New Socialist rural, researching the credit risk is the necessary base. This paper analysis the credit structure of sample agencies, judge the credit risk of farmer credit by Credimetrics model, the methods include the Monte Car Io and Kernel Distribution. The result shows that the credit risk of farmer is higher. The Net Present Value is lower than Present Value. Basing on the conclusion this paper get the policy suggestion and outlook the researching focus on the next step.