贵州省年降雨量和天然年径流量年际变化研究

Periodic Changes of the Annual Precipitation and Annual Natural Runoff in Guizhou Province

采用小波变换方法对贵州省总年均降雨量和径流量的突变点和周期性进行分析,研究结果表明:贵州省1956-2000年降雨量呈弱变异并且无明显增加趋势,而径流量具有中等程度的变异且有一定的增加趋势;降雨量无明显突变点,径流量在1964年和1989年有明显的突变特征;降雨量和径流量的变化周期具有同步性,降雨量的变化周期大致为42年、22年和5年,径流量的变化周期大致为40年、22年和5年。40年和22年尺度的周期具有全局性,而5年尺度的周期变化主要在1960s-1980s表现活跃。全省11个水资源三级区中洪水河、沅江浦市镇以上、思南以上、北盘江、石鼓以下干流和柳江的降雨、径流变化具有一定的同步性。

Research on the multiple time-frequency analysis of annual precipitation and annual runoff is help to integrated manage of Karst area, efficiently use of water resources, constitute criterion of designing water and electricity establishment. This paper analyzes abrupt change and periods of annual precipitation and annual natural runoff in Guizhou Province based on Morlet wavelet transform. The result shows that annual precipitation has weakly variance and no obvious increase tendency from 1956--2000, but annual runoff has middling variance and increase tendency in a degree; periodic changes of annual precipitation and annual run- off are isochronous, periods of precipitation is 42, 22 and 5 years, periods of runoff is 40, 22 and 5 years. Periods of 40 and 22 years are overall, but 5 years periods is mainly active in 1960s--1980s years. Runoff is isochronous in the Hongshui river, upwards of Yuanjiangbu town, upwards of Sinan, Beipan river, down- wards of Shigu and Liu river of the 11 water resources 3rd class region of Guizhou Province.