“锚定参照错误”偏向对贝叶斯推理成绩的影响

The Effect of Anchoring Reference Error Biases on Bayesian Reasoning

采用贝叶斯推理问题作为实验材料,通过分析被试推理过程中的理由叙述,探讨被试贝叶斯推理所使用的启发式策略,从认知偏向的角度分析该问题的困难原因。结果发现:(1)在贝叶斯推理过程中,对"击中率"命题的"换位表征"错误和锚定"基础比率"信息导致了"锚定参照错误"偏向,从而表现出对贝叶斯推理成绩显著的高估或低估;(2)"锚定参照错误"偏向程度和锚定参照目标受任务情境的影响;(3)解决良构的问题和非良构的问题时,"换位表征"的现象都有可能发生,而且表现得比较一致。

The experiment was conducted to investigate the heuristic strategy of Bayesian reasoning with the classical mammography problem as the experimental material, and the causes of difficulties were analyzed from a cognitive bias angle. The results indicated that （1）The ＂conversing presentation＂ of ＂the hit rate proposition＂ and anchoring to ＂the base rate＂ in the process of Bayesian reasoning led to ＂anchoring reference error＂ bias, so significantly higher or lower evaluation of probability could be found; （2） Reasoning task＇s context could affect the extent of ＇anchoring reference error＇ bias and anchoring reference targets; （3） When good structure problems or not-good structure problems were solved, ＂conversing presentation＂ might occur moderately.