央行冲销政策可持续性分析

The Sustainability of China's Central Bank's Sterilization Policy

新世纪以来,中国人民银行面对人民币升值和国内通货膨胀的压力,采取了以央行票据为主要手段的冲销政策。持续的央行票据发行,在部分实现政策目标的同时,也产生了高昂的成本,并可能威胁到其他货币政策目标的实现。在中美货币政策差异以及人民币汇率变动的情况下,随着央行票据发行规模和存量不断增加,央行票据冲销成本越来越高,2008年之后发行的央行票据已经接近或超过了可持续的界限。调整央行票据的期限结构,适度增加3年期以上的票据发行比重,积极培育多元化的冲销工具体系是摆脱对央行票据依赖的根本出路。

Since the beginning of the new century, the People＇s Bank of China （China＇s central bank, PBC） has been faced with the appreciation of RMB and domestic inflationary pressures, and frequently taken sterilization policy with Central Bank Bill as the main mean. Although the continuous issue of central bank bills partly achieved some policy goals, at the same time, it may bring high cost and pose a threat to other monetary policy targets. And we find that, with the growing of central bank bills, Sino-US differences in monetary policy and changes in RMB exchange rate, the costs of central bank bills rise greatly. The issuance of central bank bills in 2008 are close to or exceeding the sustainable Boundaries. The only way to divert from dependence on central bank bills lies in adj usting the maturity structure of central bank bills, moderate increasing of more than 3-year period share issuance, and actively cultivating a wide range of the sterilization tools system.