中国流动性失衡状况实证——基于当前长短期不一致的分析

An Empirical Study on China's Imbalance of Liquidity——Analysis of Disaccord Between Long and Short Term

中国流动性过剩从2005年开始一直持续至今。中国目前存在着长期流动性过剩与短期流动性紧缺的双重压力。长期流动性过剩形成的主要原因是存贷差的不断扩大,短期流动性紧缺是外部因素所致。短期流动性紧缺的影响是巨大的,但同样不能忽视长期流动性过剩的影响。VAR模型中的脉冲响应函数显示,虽然流动性过剩对资产价格影响微弱,但其无疑会增大实际GDP的波动,同时会加剧通货膨胀,并在滞后3期时对通货膨胀产生最大正向影响。当前,应该通过规则性货币政策稳定预期以及前瞻性货币政策减少长期流动性过剩的负面影响;同时加大财政政策力度,以走出"流动性陷阱"。

There has been excess liquidity for several years in China since 2005, and even nowadays it still exists. The coexistence of excess liquidity in long term and shortage of liquidity in shot term result in double pressures. The shortage of liquidity is caused by exterior factors, while the excess liquidity in long term is due to the gap between loan and deposit which is becoming bigger and bigger. Though the impact of liquidity＇s shortage is strong, we cannot negleet the impact of the excess liquidity in long term. Based on Impulse Response Function in vector autoregressions（VAR） model, the author find excess liquidity in long term impact asset price slightly, but it could enhance fluctuation of real GDP and increase inflation, and the lag of the most positive influence of inflation is 3. Thus, this paper propose China＇s government use monetary policy rules to make expectation stable, use forward-looking monetary policy to reduce the negative influence of excess liquidity in long term, and meanwhile strengthen fiscal policy to get rid of ＂liquidity trap＂.