人民币汇率、消费、物价水平与我国农产品进口——以2005年7月至2008年6月中美农产品贸易为例

RMB Exchange Rate,Consumption,Price and Import of Agricultural Products——Take Sino-US Agricultural Products Trade between July 2005 and June 2008 as an Example

本文以2005年7月至2008年6月的月度数据作为样本区间,通过Granger检验、ADF检验、协整检验,建立实证模型就人民币汇率、我国居民消费与我国物价水平对我国从美国进口农产品的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明,我国居民消费价格水平的上涨对我国从美国进口农产品的影响最为明显,居民消费水平提高的影响次之,人民币升值对我国从美国进口农产品的影响不是很明显。

Taking the monthly data from July 2005 to June 2008 as a specimen period, using the Granger causality test and the Johansen cointegration test, through setting empirical model, this paper analyzes the influences of RMB exchange rate and China residential consumption to the import of agricultural products from the US. The result shows that the increase of China residential consumption price level has the largest impact on the import of agricultural products from US, the impact of the improvement of residential consumption is secondary, and the impact of RMB appreciation is unnoticeable.