黄河中游水文变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应

Variation trends of runoffs in the Middle Yellow River basin and its response to climate change

黄河中游水资源匮乏,分析水文要素变化趋势对实现水资源的可持续开发利用具有重要意义。根据流域地貌特征及水文站控制情况,将黄河中游划分为3个区间,分别为：河-龙区间、龙-三区间和三-花区间,采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法与线性回归方法,分析检验了各区间年径流量的历史变化趋势。采用设定情景与水文模拟相结合的途径,评估了不同区间河川径流量对气候变化的响应。根据1950-2005年资料分析,结果表明：黄河中游干流控制站实测径流量与区间径流量均具有显著的减少趋势。若气温升高1℃,年径流量将减少3.7%-6.6%;河川径流对降水变化更为敏感,若降水减少10%,河川径流量将减少17%-22%;近些年黄河中游气温升高和降水减少是河川径流减少的重要原因之一。

The Yellow River is shortage in water resources, and it＇ s of significance to analyze variation of hydrological vanables for sustainable development of water resources. According to the characters of geomorphology and distribution of key hydrometric stations, the middle reaches of the Yellow River is divided into three regions, which are the region from Hekouzhen to Longmen, the region from Longmen to Sanmenxia, and the region from Sanmenxia to Huayuankou. Historical variation trends of runoff in each region are tested with the Mann-Kendall method and the linear regression method. Based on the hypothetical climate scenario and the natural discharge simulation for each region, the responses of runoff to climate change are studied. And results indicate that there are a significant decline trends in the recorded runoff at each key hydrometric stations and the regional runoff. Annual runoff would decrease 3.7% - 6.6% if air temperature rise 1℃, while runoff would decrease 17% - 22% if precipitation increase by 10%. Thereby, runoff is more sensitive to change in precipitation than that to temperature change.