南县耕地动态变化及其驱动力定量分析

Quantitative analysis of dynamic change and its driving force of Nan County arable land

影响耕地数量变化的因素错综复杂,用单一的回归分析法不易得到一个满意的模型。在前人研究的基础上,以湖南省南县为例,首先用主成分分析法选择主要的影响因素,克服多重共线性问题;然后再对选择的因素建立回归模型,从而对影响耕地数量变化因素的影响力进行定量分析,得到南县耕地数量变化驱动力主要有四大类因素:经济发展、人口增长、国家政策和农业集约化。并且指出不能只靠政策手段来解决耕地保护问题,需要通过经济、制度和科技相结合的措施才能实现保护耕地的目标。

The factors affecting arable land quantity change are complex, and only a single regression analysis is not able to attain a satisfactory model. Based on previous studies, and taking Nan County of Hunan Province as a case, firstly principal component anal- ysis was conducted to choose the major influencing factors to overcome multicollinearity problems; then a regression model for the chosen factors was established, thereby quantitative analysis of the impact of the factors that affected the quantity changes of arable land was conducted, and it was concluded that there were four main types of factors of driving force for quantity changes of Nan County arable land： economic development, population increase, government policies and agricultural intensification. And it was pointed out that not only the government policies could be relied on as the means to resolve the issue of farmland protection, but also the measures combining economic, institutional and technological factors were need to achieve the goal of protecting arable land.