影响高等教育规模的主要因素及其协整关系——基于时间序列数据的分析

Major Factors That Influences Size of Higher Education and Their Co-integration:An Analysis Based on Time-series Data

从1999年开始,我国高等教育规模迅速扩大,2007年高等教育毛入学率已达23%。同时,大学生就业难、文凭贬值等问题日益凸显,据此引发了人们对教育"过度"还是"不足"的争论。因此,分析我国历年来高等教育规模及其主要影响因素,并探寻它们之间的协整关系就显得非常有意义。在以往的相关研究中,学者们用最小二乘法实证分析历年高等教育规模及其影响因素之间的关系,但容易出现"伪回归"。运用动态计量经济学中的协整理论进行分析则可以解决这个问题。协整计量的结果发现,高等教育规模与四个影响因素之间确实存在稳定的长期均衡关系,其影响系数从大到小依次为总人口数、恩格尔系数、GDP发展水平和第三产业占GDP的比重。

The size of China＇s higher education has grown rapidly since 1999, and the mass ratio of enrollment is 23 % in 2007. However, serious problems have appeared, such as graduate employment and diploma devaluation. There hence arises the argument between over--education and under--education. It is therefore meaningful to consider the size of the higher ed- ucation, the major influence factors, and their relationship. The previous studies tended to use the OLS to analyze the relationship, which usually brought about spurious regression. The present author finds that the Co--integration Test could solve this problem. This study shows that there are steady and long equilibrium relations and the coefficients include the total number of people, Engel＇s Coefficient, GDP and the proportion of the third industry in the GDP.