生态承载力约束下的区域可持续发展的动态模拟——以博鳌特别规划区为例

Dynamic simulation of regional sustainable development under the restriction of eco-capacity—a case study in Boao Planning Area

根据现有生态足迹计算框架存在的缺陷提出了修正方法以及虚拟生态足迹的概念.针对区域规划实施的长期性、动态性和不确定性以《博鳌亚洲论坛特别规划区总体规划(2005-2020)》为例,采用系统动力学方法,以生态承载力利用系数k来表示生态承载力对区域生态足迹的约束,建立了生态承载力约束下的区域生态足迹系统动力学模型,结合情景模拟分析结果,提出了区域可持续发展策略.研究表明,目前案例区开发程度较低,资源禀赋优越,2004年尚有0.44gha的人均生态盈余;规划实施后,生产用地面积的缩减、人口的迅速增长和消费水平的提高将使案例区出现严重的生态赤字,预计2010年和2020年人均生态赤字分别为0.49gha和2.36gha.为减少规划实施对资源环境造成的不利影响,应提高土地生态生产能力,合理制定虚拟生态足迹战略,适当降低区域发展规模,以及对资源出口地区开展生态补偿.

A concept of virtual ecological footprint and amendment were presented to overcome the limitation in traditional ecological footprint calculation framework. In order to accommodate the long range, variation and uncertainty in regional planning, the planning environmental impact assessment of the special planning area for Boao Forum for Asia was used as examgle, an SD model for regional ecological footprint under the restriction of bio-capacity was built based on the system dynamic method. Restriction of bio-capacity was expressed by bio-capacity occupation coefficient, κ. Regional sustainable development strategies were brought forward according to the scenario simulation results. The study demonstrated that the investigated area developed under low intensiveness and had abundant resources by far. In 2004, the planning area had 0.44gha ecological reserve per capita. Remarkable ecological deficit would appear after the planning implemented due to the decrease of productive land and the increase of population and consumption. It was predicted that ecological deficit per capita would rise to 0.49gha and 2.36gha in 2010 and 2020, respectively. To reduce adverse impact on environment, measures should be taken to enhance land productivity, to establish virtual ecological footprint strategy and to reduce the regional development scale. Resource exporters should be compensated as well.