基于品牌价值的销售额预测模型应用研究

The Research on Forecasting Model of Saleroom Based on Brand Value

首先分析了企业的品牌价值与其销售额的变化情况,归纳出品牌价值与销售额之间的两个重要的变化规律.而后以此作为二者关系方程构建的基础假设,以广告反映模型(VW模型)为基础,将原模型中的广告投入变量替换为品牌价值变量,建立了品牌价值与销售额之间的关系方程.通过求解关系方程的平衡解,得到了以品牌价值为变量的销售额预测模型.最后,采用海尔集团的实际数据对所建模型的适用性和正确性进行了证明,同时还对模型的预测精度进行了检验.研究突破了以往研究一般采用时间、环境变量直接预测销售额,或是采用历史数据对销售额进行模拟预测等传统的预测方法,首次从品牌价值的角度出发研究其对销售额的影响途径及影响力度.品牌价值是能够包涵如广告投入等因素的全部信息量的重要指标,因此其能够更为全面客观地衡量商品在整个市场中的价值潜力、能够更准确地反映其未来的销售份额.

The research analyzes the brand value and the saleroom of the corporations at first. And two vital relations between the brand value and the saleroom have been summed up. Then the function of relationship and the forecasting model of saleroom has been established based on them and on the VW model. And then the forecasting model of saleroom with the variable of brand vale has been got through solving the function of the relationship. At last the correctness and fitness of the relation function and the precision of the forecasting model have been validated with the real dates of Haier. The research has broken through the traditional forecasting model in the past. It is the first time to analyze the influence way to the saleroom by the angle of its brand value. The forecasting model of saleroom bases on brand value got by solving the relatively equation. This will more impersonality and more roundly scale the potential of the goods in the whole markets, and scale the saleroom in the future more accurately.