航运业对中国经济卅年高速发展的贡献

Contributions of Shipping Industry to Rapid China's Economy Expansion

国际航运成本的高低是影响外贸出口及经济发展的一个主要因素。以中国30 a来的发展为背景就航运成本对外贸和经济发展的影响问题展开讨论。针对中国出口贸易,航运成本被分解为班轮运输成本和港口成本。通过对每一成本的构成因素进行分析,着重讨论了中国航运港口30 a来发展的主要指标,并在此基础上进行了国际比较。最后得出的结论为:中国30 a来航运和港口的改善使其外贸量增加了约25%。或者说,如果中国的航运市场开放程度和港口效率停留在1978年的水平上,今天中国外贸的25%将由于高昂的运输成本而无法在国际市场上实现。这进而会影响国民经济的发展,例如它会使中国2007年GDP的增长降低约0.68%。

The impact of international shipping and port services on Chinese trade and economic development is examined.The focus of analysis is on liner shipping market competitiveness and port cost and efficiency.A cross-country comparison is made and a final conclusion is drawn that the improvement of shipping and port services in China between 1978 and 2007 has led to an increase of export up to about 25%.In another word,the Chinese export level would have been about 25% lower if the shipping and port sector in China had been of the same level in 1978.