基于风险分担的BOT产品价格研究

To Study on the Price of BOT Products Based on Risk-Sharing

BOT特许产品能否合理定价是确保项目成功的关键。目前对特许产品定价的研究尚不成熟,多以产品的经营成本为基础进行定价,很少考虑风险因素。即使考虑风险因素,由于BOT项目参与主体多,项目产生的风险应由参与各方分担等诸多因素的影响,使得结果产生较大偏差,这是导致我国BQT项目运作失败率高的一个重要原因。文中建立了基于风险分担的BOT项目特许产品定价模型,它充分考虑了需求风险、供应风险、通货膨胀风险、利率风险、汇率风险对收益率的影响以至于对价格的影响;创新点在于,区分了不同风险对不同BOT项目中的影响程度,并以此为基础,对产品价格的确定进行了探索。

It is the key of project success that BOT products are made price in reason.It is not mature of studies in chartering price that are usually base on working cost and seldom consider risks. Many partner to share risks and other influential factors result in much warp that is important reason which leads BOT projects to failure with high ratio. This paper builds the pricing model of BOT product on the base of risk shared.The innovation of the model is that it considers sufficiently the risk of demand ,providing, inflation ,interest rate and exchange rate works on income rate and price.The innovation of this paper is that it describes the effects of different risks on different BOT projects,on which we can determine the price of the products.