雨量预报方法的评价

To Evaluate on Approaches of Rainfall Forecast

雨量预报对我们的工作和生活,农业生产,洪涝和地质灾害等有着重要作用,但要准确、及时地对雨量作出预报是比较困难的。文中给出了一个简单有效的评价雨量预报方法的方法。针对2005年全国大学生数学建模竞赛C题"雨量预报方法的评价"中的两个问题,运用maple将文本数据读写成矩阵元素,实现了大量数据分析的机械化处理。运用MAPLE绘制仿真图,分析图形的拟合程度;同时,计算出预测数据结果和实测数据结果的残差平方和,并对预测准确度进行检验,综合得出第一种雨量预报方法比第二种预报方法准确率高、给公众感受更好。

Rainfall forecast has a great relevance to our work and life, agriculture, flood and geologic disaster, nevertheless, it is difficult to accurately and timely forecast rainfall. This paper provides a simple and effective approach to it. In order to solve the two problems in exercise C ＂ Evaluation on Approaches of Rainfall Forecast＂ of the 2005 National College Students Mathematics Construction Model Competition, Maple is used to transform the text data into matrix elements, thus mechanization of large amounts of data analysis is realized. Through Maple, imitation graphs can be drawn; fitted degree of graphs can be analyzed. Moreover, the difference square sum of the result of forecast data and real data is calculated. The accuracy of forecast is tested. In the end it is concluded that the first approach is more accurate and popular among the public than the second one.