突变理论在作战体系结构稳定性分析中的应用

Application of Catastrophe Theory in Stability Analysis of Warfare System Architecture

提出作战体系结构主导度、协同度、破击度的概念及量化方法。将作战体系结构所处的状态分为稳定状态、混乱状态、崩溃状态,并以作战体系结构所处的状态为状态变量,崩溃状态对应于状态变量的最小值,混乱状态对应于状态变量的中间值,稳定状态对应于状态变量的最大值。以主导度、协同度、破击度为控制变量,建立燕尾突变分析模型,并进行实例分析。该方法为定量研究非对称作战的有效性问题提供了一种新思路。

The paper proposes concepts including dominant degree, coordination index and degree of damage in combat system and their quantitative method. The state of combat system structure is divided into three states： stable state, confusion and collapse state, the state of combat system structure is used as state variable; collapse state corresponds to the minimum value of state variable; confusion state corresponds to intermediate value of state variable; stable state corresponds to maximum value of state variable. We used dominant degree, coordination index and degree of damage as control variables, established the analysis model of swallowtail catastrophe and analyzed the practical example. The method provides a new thought for the validity problem of asymmetric engagement in quantitative study.