西北公路与铁路发展趋势及其影响因素分析

An Empirical Study on the Development of the Highway and Railway in Northwest China

基于因果分析理论、自回归分布滞后模型和误差修正模型的等计量经济学理论,建立了西北公路与铁路的发展与控制模型,揭示了西北公路铁路发展的内在规律及其与各影响因素之间的系统作用关系。结果表明:西北公路与铁路的长期发展和短期波动规律首先延续着其本身的发展惯性,其次西北公路与铁路发展所受的影响来自于财政支出和固定资产投资总额的综合效果。在长期发展趋势模型中当期财政支出对当期西北公路与铁路线路长度变化的影响力度最强,在短期波动中上期财政支出的波动必定带来当期西北公路与铁路线路长度较大变化的波动,这样的波动会在一年之内得以调整,同时表明作为基础设施建设的我国公路与铁路的发展对政府投资的强依赖性。

Since the construction of infrastructure such as highways and railways can provide a powerful material basis for the regional development, it is highly important to analyze the relation between the building of highways and railways in Northwest China and the economic development for the deci- sion-making of the Northwest traffic development and the investment policy. Based on the theory of econometrics, such as the causality theory, autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model, the development and control model can be built to show the internal rules and systematic relationship. It is proved in the paper that although a regular pattern of the long-term development and the short-term fluctuation of Northwest highway and railway is under its natural development inertia,the development of Northwest highway and railway is affected by the financial expenditure and the to- tal investment of fixed assets. In the long-term trend model, the amount of the current financial expenditure determines the length of the current lines of Northwest highway and railway, while in the short-term fluctuation, an alternation of financial expenditure in the previous period brings out a considerable change in the length of the current lines, which can be adjusted within one year. Obviously,the construction of highways and railways relies strongly on the government investment.