层次分析法对人禽流感流行控制措施的风险评估研究

Risk assessment of epidemic mitigation measures against human avian influenza by analytic hierarchy process

目的探讨人禽流感的流行控制措施及其风险评估。方法应用层次分析法构建人禽流感流行控制措施指标体系,利用Matalab、SPSS 15.0软件进行统计分析。结果人禽流感控制措施层次结构评估指标体系是合理的,其综合权重系数大小依次为隔离、消毒、动物灭活、制度措施、控制流动、疫苗、定点收治、穿防护衣和带口罩、高温加热、药物、锻炼、食补。结论人禽流感各控制措施中首先是隔离、消毒和疫苗防制,而药物、食补、锻炼对疾病的症状有一定的改善作用,但对防制人禽流感的流行作用甚微。

Objective To study epidemic mitigation strategies against human avain influenza and their risk assessment. Methoils Human avian influenza epidemic control measures index system was constructed by analytic hierarchy process （AHP） , and the data were processed and analysed with Matalab and SPSS15.0 software. Results The evaluation index system of human avian infulenza control measures was reasonable, its comprehensive weighting coefficients ranked in followind desending order： quarantine, disinfec- tion, animal inactivated, system of measures, flow control, vaccination, admission in designated hospital, wearing protective suits and masks, heating with high temperature, drugs, training, food nutrition. Conclusions The primary measures of the human avian influ- enza mitigation strategies is isolation, disinfection and vaccine control. And drugs, excises and dietotherapy have some role to improve the disease symptoms, but they have the minimal role to prevent and control the prevalence.