备选项序列特征对动态决策行为影响的实验研究

An experimental study of the sequential features on dynamic decision

根据决策者的有限理性假设以及行为决策理论,动态决策过程中备选项随机出现的序列特征对人们的搜索行为和心理具有重要影响。本文运用实验室实验的方法研究发现,当选项集数量较少且选项值连续升高的情境下,决策者倾向于较少的搜索数量;而当选项集数量较少且选项值连续降低的情境下,决策者倾向于较多的搜索数量。另一方面,当选项集数量较多且选项值连续升高的情境下,决策者倾向于较多的搜索数量;而当选项集数量较多且选项值连续降低的情境下,决策者倾向于较少的搜索数量。

On the basis of the dicision--maker＇s bounded rationality and behavioural decision hypothesis, it is found that the randomly chosen sequential alternatives are vital to the dynamic decision. The paper describes a laboratory experiment. Result shows that there is a correlation between successive times of candidate appearance and search numbers, and the mediate effects of alternative sets. Furthermore, the decision--maker is often inclined to hot hand under the condition of successive candidate appearances and to gambler＇s fallacy under the condition of successive non-candidate appearances.