基于区间法下的大用户直购电风险度量模型

Risk measurement models for direct electricity-purchase by large consumers based on interval method

针对大用户直购电给供电公司带来的风险进行研究。分析了供电公司实行大用户直购电前后的供电成本和供电收益的变化;并采用邮票法对转运电费用进行分摊,得出大用户直购电的单位供电成本;根据未来转运费的预测区间构建供电公司的风险度量模型,并结合风险度量结果给出供电公司一些有效规避策略。算例表明,该模型是可行的,可为供电公司的风险管理提供一定的参考。

The risk of the power supply company due to direct electricity-purchase by large consumers was studied. In detailed words, the changes in the power supply cost and benefits of the company before and after implementation of direct electricity-purchase were analyzed, the power supply cost per unit was obtained by using the stamp theory to apportion the transmission-distribution cost, the risk measurement model for the power supply company was constructed according to the forecast interval of transmission-distribution cost in the future, and some effective strategies for risk avoidance were proposed based on the risk measurement results. Examples proved the model feasible.