应用DSSAT模型预测宁夏春小麦产量演变趋势

Application of DSSAT crop model on prediction of potential yield of spring wheat in Ningxia

对DSSAT作物模型中的CERES-Wheat小麦模型,在排除虫害和病害影响条件下,以宁夏永宁站永良4号春小麦为样本进行品种参数调试及模拟验证,确定品种参数。宁夏平罗站同一品种15年生育期特征及潜在产量模拟验证结果表明,产量值、开花天数预测结果较好,生理成熟天数模拟误差较大。宁夏黄河灌区25 km×25 km共计39个格点1961-1990年Baseline气候情景（无考虑温室气体效应）及构建的2011-2100年A2（CO2约1%的中高排放）、B2（CO2约0.5%的中低排放）气候情景潜在产量模拟对比结果表明,Baseline气候情景下39个格点的平均潜在产量6 428 kg/hm^2,A2情景下的2011-2040、2041-2070、2071-2100平均产量分别为6 235、5 869、5 211 kg/hm^2,与Baseline年相比均为减产趋势,分别减产为3%、8%、19%。B2情景下的2011-2040、2041-2070、2071-2100平均产量分别为6 2195、977、5721 kg/hm^2,与Baseline年相比均为减产趋势,分别减产3%、7%、11%。高排放的减产率比低排放要大。

Under the conditions that insect pest and diseases were not considered,the CERES-Wheat model in DSSAT3.5 crop modeling was applied to predict potential yield of spring wheat in Ningxia.Through adjusting spring wheat cultivar coefficients of Yongliang No.4 on Yongning County and validating the model,cultivar coefficients were identified.Using these coefficients,growth performance and potential yields were simulated on the same cultivar for 15 years（1986～2000） in Pingluo County.The results showed that between simulation and observation there was a good approach for potential yields and flowering days,and a larger error for physiological maturity days.Under the future climate scenarios（A2 and B2 scenarios）,in Huanghe irrigation area of Ningxia for 39 grids（25 km×25 km scale）,potential yields were simulated for 90 years which were divided into three stages（2011～2040,2041～2070,2071～2100） and were compared with baseline climate scenario（1961～1990）.The results showed that potential yields under both future climate scenarios（A2 and B2） would decrease compared with that under the baseline climate scenario by 3%,8% and 19% under three different stages of A2 climate scenario respectively,and by 3%,7% and 11% under three different stages of B2 climate scenario.The decrease rate under higher release of CO2 was larger than that under lower release.