外汇干预与就业、宏观经济增长研究——以1994—2007年中国外汇干预实证研究为例

Research on Foreign Exchange Intervention,Employment and Macro-economic Growth——An Example of Empirical Studies on Foreign Exchange Intervention in China from 1994 to 2007

文章通过构建理论模型对外汇干预与就业、宏观经济增长之间的互动关系进行了研究,认为中央银行应能从外汇干预中获得正收益,同时外汇干预能有效降低就业与经济增长过程中大幅波动的可能性。在理论模型的基础上,文章对1994—2007年间中国外汇干预政策实施效果进行了实证研究,主要结论为与理论模型基本一致:市场化的人民币外汇干预会导致央行正向的干预收益,同时降低就业与经济增长的波动性。对于目前受到国际次贷危机影响的中国经济来说,采取更为灵活的外汇干预政策应是合理的政策选择。

This paper analyzes the relationship among foreign exchange intervention, employment and macro-economic growth by constructing a theoretical model. It considers that the central bank can benefit from foreign exchange intervention which could effectively reduce the possibility of big fluctuations of employment and economic growth. Based on the theoretical model, the paper makes an empirical study on the implementation effect of foreign exchange policy from 1994 to 2007 and obtains main conclusions which are consistent with the theoretical model. Market-oriented RMB foreign exchange intervention could lead to positive intervention earnings and reduce the possibility of fluctuations of employment and economic growth. It would be a rational choice to carry out more flexible foreign exchange intervention policy for China affected by sub-prime lending crisis.